2021 Heisman Trophy Odds (50-1 or Shorter)

Via DraftKings

There are plenty of great bets to make when playing the Heisman Trophy market. But due to the sheer volume of the field, there are perhaps more bets to avoid.

Here are four players within striking distance who have absolutely no shot at winning the award this season.

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Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (+900)

Biggest downfall: Supporting cast

If Mac Jones can’t win it after leading the country in yards, rating, and completion percentage en route to a national championship, Young needs to put up a legendary campaign.

That’s just not possible with the current skill corps.

Alabama’s entire roster is rife with blue-chip players, but don’t bank on the unit running like a well-oiled machine from start to finish. The Crimson Tide return the second-lowest skill position usage in the entire country behind only Northwestern.

Jones and fellow Bama product Tua Tagovailoa had the luxury of playing alongside some of the best supporting casts in college football history the last few years. Both have a grand total of zero Heisman trophies to show for it.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (+2800)

Biggest downfall: Price

William Hill sportsbook took a $3,000 wager on Texas quarterback Casey Thompson to win the award at 100-1 earlier this summer, pushing him as low as 20-1. Here, we have Robinson listed shorter than 30-1.

Relax. How many Heisman hopefuls does a projected eight-win team want?

To be fair, Robinson was a human highlight reel as a freshman last season. He averaged a whopping 8.2 yards per carry and recorded a play of 50 or longer in three of his final four games.

However, don’t buy the momentum.

Robinson recorded three of his four rushing touchdowns against Kansas State — a defense that finished No. 72 in the country in DF+ — while his highest single-game rushing total (183) came in a bowl game that resembled more of a backyard scrimmage than a meaningful postseason tilt.

The running back position’s too volatile and hasn’t fared well in this department of late. Easy pass on the current market price.

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Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State (+3500)

Biggest downfall: Volume

Iowa State ran passing plays 55.4% of the time in 2019, good for No. 17 in the country and the highest in the Matt Campbell era to date. It didn’t last too long.

That number plummeted to 45.9% last season (No. 71 in the nation) as the offense relied on running back Breece Hall. The fellow 40-1 Heisman hopeful will frequently help pad Purdy numbers in the passing game, but he’ll ultimately take away a huge portion of overall usage rate in the offense.

In 2020, Purdy threw eight fewer touchdown passes and the same number of interceptions as he did the year prior despite playing in one more game.

I’m not fond of where he’s trending.

Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati (+5000)

Biggest downfall:  Everything

Ridder likely needs to run the table during the regular season, crack the College Football Playoff, win at least one game in the four-team format, and rack up roughly 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns to contend.

The Bearcats would be fortunate to accomplish just one of those feats in 2021.

Ridder’s entering NFL Draft conversations, and Cincinnati is the New Year’s Six favorite, but it’s completely irrelevant to his Heisman chances.

He hasn’t registered more than 2,500 yards in a single campaign or finished top-three in passing touchdown for his own conference in each of his three years as the primary starter.

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