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Bayern Munich vs. Frankfurt Betting Odds and Picks: Do You Dare Fade the Bundesliga Favorites? (Saturday, May 23)


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Author: Michael J. Leboff

HANNIBAL HANSCHKE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Lewandowski

Bundesliga Odds: Frankfurt vs. Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich -770
Frankfurt +1600
Draw +750
Over/Under 3.5 (-148/+120)
Time 12:30 p.m. ET
TV FS1

I think it’s quite helpful in betting — especially in matchups with prohibitive favorites — to start your work by making an argument for the underdog. It’s easy to make a case for the favorite, they are (in most cases) the better team. But is there a path to success for the underdog? Is there something that’s inflating the value on the favorite? Do the numbers show something that the market could be glossing over? Those are the questions to ask as you try and find your way to a bet.

Even though Bayern Munich is very, very likely to win this match, there’s no way I’m going to lay -770 on any team, especially one that is playing just its second match after a two-month pause thanks to a global pandemic.

Bayern Munich’s statistical output speaks for itself, they lead the Bundesliga in goals, expected goals, goal differential and expected goal differential. FC Hollywood is the best team in the Bundesliga and it isn’t particularly close. That being said, Bayern didn’t look all that dominant in their 2-0 victory over Union Berlin last weekend. It took 40 minutes for Bayern to get on the board with a penalty kick (Die Roten did have a goal disallowed via VAR) and expected goals models showed that Bayern deserved the win, but they also painted a closer match than the 2-0 scoreline suggested.

xG Map courtesy of @Caley_graphics

Frankfurt, meanwhile, was doomed from the start in their match against Monchengladbach, allowing two goals inside the first 10 minutes and never really recovering.

Die Adler were deserved losers against a high-flying Gladbach offense but I expect them to put forth a better account of themselves against Bayern. Frankfurt is destined for a mid-table finish so they may not have all that much to play for, but any team in Germany relishes the opportunity to knock Bayern Munich down a couple of pegs.

Even though Frankfurt have been a disappointment this season compared to 2018-19, their underlying numbers suggest they’ve been a bit unlucky. Die Adler have allowed 44 goals this season but their xGA suggests that number should be closer to 37 and puts them on level pegging — at least defensively – -with Leverkusen and Monchengladbach.

Union Berlin dug deep in their showdown with the 28-time Bundesliga champions on Sunday and I expect Frankfurt to do the same. Die Adler’s only real shot in this match is to turn it into a rock fight and hope to make good on any opportunity they can generate.

Over 90 minutes I think Bayern Munich proves to be too much, but Frankfurt will likely dig in from the start and it could take some time before Munich is able to break them down. Maybe a first-half under is worth a shot, but I’ll go hunting for a bigger price here and back Frankfurt to get to halftime with a lead.

The Bet: Frankfurt First-Half ML (+850)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]


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Author: Michael J. Leboff

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