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Author: Dillon Essma
Burnley vs. Tottenham Odds
|Burnley Odds||+480 [BET NOW]|
|Tottenham Odds||-182 [BET NOW]|
|Draw Odds||+330 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.75 (-120/-103) [BET NOW]|
|Time||4 p.m. ET|
Two of my favorites face off Monday afternoon, as Tottenham travel to the Turf Moor for a matchup against Burnley.
Spurs have had a great start to their season, whereas Burnley have struggled a bit. The Clarets are always much tougher at home than on the road, but Burnley manager Sean Dyche will be happy to take a point from this fixture. Meanwhile, Jose Mourinho will want all three for Tottenham. This should be a fun one to dive into.
Burnley have had a tough start to the season, losing three and drawing one to put them 18th in the table entering Monday’s match. The competition hasn’t been overly difficult either, and the Clarets’ results have left me a bit concerned for their prospects this season.
For starters, the club refuses to spend in the transfer window, which has left Dyche wondering about his future at the club. On top of that, the squad isn’t fully fit, which makes his job even more difficult.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
What Burnley has going for them is that they are still playing supreme defensively and have an elite goalkeeper in Nick Pope, as well as one of the Premier League’s better managers running the ship. The challenges for the Clarets are that they’re struggling to create scoring chances, the squad lacks depth and their usual home-field advantage is muted without supporters.
Burnley are much better offensively when Dwight McNeil is dangerous on set pieces and whipping in successful crosses. Last season, he led the team in expected assists (xA) with 7.56. So far, he has 0.41 xA, which would put him at 3.90 at the end of the season. I wouldn’t extrapolate that, but I’m just quantifying why the Clarets might be struggling offensively.
Burnley are trailing their xG/game from last season by 0.45, and McNeil creating more chances would be a big boost toward improving those figures. Defensively, the Clarets are conceding 1.10 xG/game, which is an improvement from last season’s 1.42.
Spurs have had a very strong start to the season. Eight points from their first five games doesn’t do justice to Mourinho’s men’s performances. Spurs’ two draws against Newcastle and West Ham should have been easy wins, but they conceded late equalizers in cruel fashion.
You could say that it is on Tottenham to see out those results. I would agree somewhat, but I think they get the full three points nine times out of 10 in those situations.
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Offensively, Tottenham are a juggernaut right now, only trailing Liverpool in xG/game. Harry Kane and Son Heung-min are the best attacking duo in the Premier League this season. If both can stay healthy, Tottenham could go on a special run.
Spurs’ defense and ability to protect a lead needs improving, but I still think this is a top-four club. Tottenham’s 2.27 xG/game is second behind Liverpool, and you can really see Kane and Son’s partnership blossoming. Son is outperforming his xG numbers with supreme finishing (seven goals vs 2.57 xG), so that should regress a bit.
Meanwhile, wow has Kane been impressive, racking up 4.57 xG and 3.21 xA across Spurs’ first five league games. The 2.27 xG/game dwarfs last season’s 1.29/game figure but will likely come down over the course of the season.
However, I think Spurs’ attack looks like the most dangerous in the league thus far. The side is conceding 1.37 xGA/game, which compares to 1.42/game last season. I also love the depth that was added in the transfer market, giving Mourinho more options on the bench than he had last season.
I’m going to play Tottenham -1 at -107 and over their team total of 2.5 at +205. Obviously, the -1 is the bigger bet. I think Spurs are playing the best soccer in the league right now, and this price is cheap.
Burnley are traditionally tough at the Turf Moor, but I think that effect will be muted without fans. I’ll ride with Jose, Harry and Son in this one.
The PICKS: Tottenham -1 at -107 | Tottenham over 2.5 at +205
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Author: Dillon Essma