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Author: Action Network Staff
Looking for the best way to bet every Week 6 NFL game?
Find snippets of our staff’s previews to each matchup below, complete with links to their full analysis as well as where to bet each of their picks.
NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Click on a matchup to skip to that preview and pick.
Raheem Palmer: This game comes down to if the Browns’ offensive line can consistently protect Mayfield against the Steelers’ pass rush. I think they can, and thus I like the Browns to end their horrid streak at Heinz Field.
Although the Steelers are 4-0, their previous opponents have a combined record of 3-15-1 with a -130 point differential.
Yes, you read that correctly. Minus 130.
Styles make fights, but what does it say about the Steelers if they allowed teams of this quality to remain competitive? The Giants had their chances in Week 1, and then a Jeff Driskel-led Broncos team had an opportunity to win on the final drive of the game. The Texans held a second-half lead, and the Eagles were a missed field goal away from taking the lead with three minutes left in the game.
My model makes has this game at Steelers -2.27, and while it feels like oddsmakers are taking a clear position on Pittsburgh giving out the three and the hook, I’m happy to oblige with a position of my own: The Browns have been underdogs in each of their last two games against the Cowboys and Colts and after backing them the past two weeks, it’s clear they’re not being respected enough.
Sprinkle a small percentage of your wager on the moneyline because the Dawg Pound could bark loudly in this spot.
PICK: Browns +3.5, Browns ML +175
Although the Bears’ 4-1 record may be somewhat fraudulent, the Panthers are a step down in class from who they’ve faced thus far defensively. My model makes this game a pick ’em, and if the Bears can get anything from their offense against a struggling Panthers defense missing Short and Gross-Matos, they should win this game outright. Take the Bears +1.5 and ML +105.
This also makes a good 6-point teaser leg to combine with the Ravens (-8.5 down to -2.5) at -120.
PICKS: Bears +1.5; ML +105
Mike Randle: This game features strength on strength with the Ravens’ rushing attack against the ground-stopping Eagles defense.
With limited offensive weapons, Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson will be aware that he can’t survive a shootout, and Baltimore’s defense will not surrender a ton of points to an offense like the Eagles’ with a limited receiving corps. The Ravens enter Week 6 leading the NFL with only 15.2 points allowed per game.
The most reliable units in this game are both defenses, and the Ravens don’t have the offensive firepower against Philadelphia’s defensive line to win by double digits.
With Jackson’s health unknown, I’m backing the Eagles +9.5 and down to +9, and I’m taking the under with a total of 46, but nowhere below that.
PICKS: Eagles +9.5, Under 46
Raheem Palmer: Unlike this past Tuesday night’s Titans-Bills matchup, the market hasn’t created an inefficiency by assuming that one team will perform worse based on the long break. The Patriots appear to be priced as they should be as the Broncos also didn’t play last week.
My model makes this game Patriots -10.76, but I find it difficult to lay the big number in this spot. With such a low total at 45, having 8 points in your pocket is much more valuable than if the total were higher. The Patriots play slow and methodical, which creates more opportunities for the underdog to cover in this spot.
At the same time, I have no interest in playing a banged-up Broncos team on the road against Bill Belichick.
For me, the value lies in the total as I project this to be a lower-scoring game.
This Broncos offense with a rusty Drew Lock shouldn’t scare a Patriots defense that held the high-flying Chiefs offense to just 26 points, with seven of those coming from a Jared Stidham pick-six.
We should expect New England to return to form and run the ball. Given the Patriots’ changes on the offensive line and the Broncos’ ability to limit explosive plays, I like this game to stay under the total of 45. I would play it down to 44 as it’s a key number for betting NFL totals.
PICK: Under 45 (down to 44)
Odds as of Saturday evening and via William Hill. Get up to a $150 deposit match and $10 FREE at William Hill today.
Reed Wallach: Sometimes you think, “Two bad offenses cancel each other out and there is more scoring.” Well, this doesn’t appear to be one of those instances.
These are two sound defenses that keep the ball in front of them facing off against two offenses that simply can’t move the ball. These are the two worst teams from a points per drive perspective, so both defenses are likely to rule this one.
I am going to stay away from betting a side, because while Kyle Allen is a nice morale boost to this Washington offense, the Giants are desperate for a first win for coach Joe Judge and are sure to have more of a sense of urgency from the jump.
This total has dropped 1.5 points since opening at 44.5 to now sit at 43. And while all trends aren’t created equal, division unders that have dropped at least one point from open are hitting at a 54.5% clip since the 2005 season, making a $100 bettor $3,448, according to our Bet Labs Database.
PICK: Under 43 (down to 41.5)
Brandon Anderson: This matchup has strong overtones of last week’s Ravens-Bengals game that saw Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense get shut down.
The Bengals have improved defensively, but they’re still consistently losing the battle in the trenches. That’s music to the Colts’ ears, as DeForest Buckner and the rest of the Indianapolis defensive front could spend a lot of time in Cincinnati’s backfield.
The Colts may not run away with this one, in part because their offense is still finding its way. A low-scoring game could leave Cincinnati a chance to cover, something that Burrow clearly has a penchant for early in his NFL career.
I like the Colts at -7.5, but I don’t love them. This is the perfect spot for a tease, though. A six-point tease crosses off seven, six and three, leaving three key numbers in the dust and meaning the Colts pretty much just have to win the game. With their defense playing as well as it is, that should be enough for Indianapolis.
With an expected lack of scoring, I would lean toward the under here if you’d like to play a total. Both teams have hit the under in their totals in three of five games this season, and their games have been at 47 or fewer points in all but three games. Both teams’ strengths are on defense, so under the current total of 46 looks like a solid play. You might even tease Colts -7.5 with the under to give you a little wiggle room.
I think the best play here might be the Bengals team under-19.5. Remember, Cincinnati scored only three points against the Ravens last week — and the Colts’ defense has been even better than Baltimore.
PICK: Tease Colts -7.5; Bengals Under -19.5
Michael Arinze: The Jaguars started the season with a softer schedule and still have only one game in the win column. Now, they’ll take on a well-rested Lions team fresh off their bye.
Historically, road favorites with at least 13 days between games are 53-27-1 in this spot for 66.3%. While that’s a win rate I can get behind, I like Detroit’s chances to come out hot in the first half. Over the last two years in September and October, Detroit is 9-2 against the spread in this spot for 6.21 units.
A first-half play would also avoid having to deal with the second half, when a dome team like Detroit can get fatigued — particularly if it’s a hot humid day in Jacksonville.
You can head over to BetMGM right now and grab the Lions in the first half at -0.5 (-118). I would play this number up to -1.5.
PICK: Lions 1H -0.5 (-118)
Brad Cunningham: With how bad the Falcons’ defense has been through the first five weeks, I don’t think a coaching change is going to fix anything. With how efficient Kirk Cousins has been, the Vikings should be able to move the ball with ease.
I have the Vikings projected at -7.43 favorites, so I think there’s some value on Minnesota at -4. However, I would only play it to -4.5.
PICK: Vikings -4
Phillip Kall: While there was reason to question the Titans when they stumbled to 3-0 to start the season, a dominating victory over the Bills showed their undefeated record is no fluke. With Tannehill operating at a high level and Henry primed for a get-right game, taking the Titans are the way to go.
PICK: Titans -3.5
Mike Randle: This rivalry is always unpredictable, but the Jets enter with too many injuries to keep this close. It would have been hard to imagine at the beginning of the season that we could see the Dolphins comfortably favored against any team, but here we are.
I’m backing the Dolphins -9.5 against a Jets team that has struggled to generate offense all season. The Jets’ rushing attack isn’t strong enough to control the line of scrimmage, and Fitzpatrick will make enough plays in the passing game to win this game by double digits.
If the Jets had Darnold at quarterback I would feel differently, but I don’t have confidence in Flacco on the road in this spot.
PICK: Dolphins -9.5
Raheem Palmer: This is a classic sharps vs. squares matchup.
Oddsmakers opened this line at the start of the week at Packers -1.5 and despite the majority of the money on the road favorite, we’re seeing the line move the other direction.
I think the wrong team is favored, and you have to wonder what this line would be if Tampa Bay didn’t have several blunders in their Thursday Night matchup against the Chicago Bears. I think Tampa Bay would be closer to -2 than the +2s that popped up in the market earlier this week.
The Packers have played a below-average schedule and will step up in class for the first time this season. On the other hand, this will be the worst defense the Buccaneers will have faced all season. I expect a bounce back game and one of the best performances of the season from Brady and a Bucs offense that is the healthiest they’ve been in a few weeks.
Although I like Tampa Bay to win this game, Green Bay will get their points as well, so this figures to be a high-scoring game. There’s a reason this total was steamed from 51.5 to the current line of 55. All value is gone at this price, but should number creep below the key number of 54, you’d have the best of it playing the over.
PICK: Buccaneers +1.5
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Author: Action Network Staff