Philadelphia vs. RBNY Odds

The New York Red Bulls are winners of two in a row under new boss Gerhard Struber, but they take a major step up in class when they visit the Philadelphia Union in Saturday’s Major League Soccer action.

The Red Bulls are coming off consecutive 2-0 home wins over Toronto FC and Chicago entering just their second away fixture of the season.

In contrast, the Union are sputtering in early on in league play, likely in part because of their CONCACAF Champions League commitments through April and early May.

A victory by either club would be a statement: either Struber is capable of matching wits against the one of the best MLS managers or the Union are fully locked in on the league after securing their passage to the CCL semifinals.

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Philadelphia: Congested Schedule Has Been Difficult

Balancing continental and domestic commitments is never easy, but the schedule makers have made it extra tough on the Union.

Saturday’s game will mark Philadelphia’s 10th competitive match since April 7 when it played the first of two legs against Deportivo Saprissa in the CCL Round of 16. That’s twice the match load of the Red Bulls in only 10 extra days.

Just this past Wednesday, the Union drew New England, 1-1, at home in an affair where both teams created more chances than the score suggested, according to multiple expected-goals (xG) measurements.

Kacper Przybylko leveled the match in the 88th minute for Philadelphia, which was his first MLS goal this year after scoring five times in the CCL matches.

However, the Polish striker is officially listed as questionable with a sprained ankle. Midfield wrecking ball Jose Andres Martinez will also be serving the last game of a three-match ban, which stemmed from an altercation with New York City FC player Valentin Castellanos.

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RBNY: Teen Standout Clark Still Making Waves

Still 12 days shy of his 18th birthday, Caden Clark enters the fifth weekend of MLS play as arguably the Red Bulls’ most important attacker.

Clark leads RBNY with three goals, two of which came from sensational first-time volleys. Cristian Casseres Jr. also has a pair of goals to help the Red Bulls compensate for a lack of production from the center-forward position, although Fabio does have four assists.

But really, it’s the defense that has helped RBNY earn positive results the last two matches.

New York allowed just 0.7 combined xG in its two recent wins, according to StatsBomb, after conceding 4.2 xG worth of chances in its opening losses to Sporting Kansas City and the Los Angeles Galaxy.

The manager might be new, but RBNY’s high-pressure approach remains. New York enters the weekend atop the league in tackles (129);  tackles won (128); and, interceptions (107). The Union are second in the first two categories.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The Union’s most impressive performance of the season might have been their last, when they conceded a go-ahead goal against the run of play before finding the energy to equalize all inside the final 10 minutes.

However, Philadelphia has expended an enormous amount of energy over the past 40 days. And the Red Bulls require substantial amount of energy to play against.

And after taking a perfect 27 points at home in 2020, there’s been serious regression in 2021, where the Union are still seeking their first home win.

If the schedule was balanced, you’d expected it to come against a Red Bulls squad that just isn’t as deep, but the lack of rest for Philadelphia likely tilts the scales in RBNY’s direction.

At the very least, I think there’s a much greater than 55% chance of the away side earning at least a point, which is the implied probability of a bet on the double-chance line for the Red Bulls or draw wager at -123 odds.

Pick: Double Chance — RBNY or Draw (-123)

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