Serie A: Cagliari at Sampdoria Odds, Pick

Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Sampdoria are almost certainly safe from relegation but a win for Claudio Ranieri’s side on Wednesday afternoon would put all worries to bed. The Blucerchiati are six points above 18th-place Lecce and there are a handful of teams in between them, but a loss to Cagliari would turn up the heat just a little bit on Sampdoria.

Cagliari have nothing to gain from Wednesday’s match. The Islanders are safe from relegation but have no chance at qualifying for European Football.

Cagliari won two of their first three matches after the break to ensure they would stay up, but they’ve stumbled since then, scoring just once during a four-game winless streak (one loss, three draws).

Cagliari may have the better record between these two sides, but Sampdoria boasts the stronger statistical profile. In fact, according to Understat’s expected points (xPoints), these two teams should flip spots in the table.

That being said, it’s actually Cagliari who have the better underlying metrics since play resumed.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

With three wins and eight goals scored from their last four matches, Sampdoria may look like they are clicking at the moment but those results are a bit misleading. Sampdoria’s expected goal differential over their last four matches is just +0.47 while their actual goal differential sits at +4.

Even though Cagliari don’t have anything to really play for, I have a tough time backing Sampdoria as an odds-on favorite in this match. Their recent form may look strong on paper, but it’s inflating their price against a team that is being perceived as a lame duck.