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Author: Jeremy Pond
Bayern Munich vs. PSG Odds
|Bayern Munich Odds||-103|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-165 / +130)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Tuesday evening via DraftKings.|
Flashback to August 23 of last year. French winger Kingsley Coman scored the lone goal in Bayern Munich’s 1-0 victory over Paris Saint-Germain, leading the German powerhouse to the Champions League crown.
Now, fast forward 7 1/2 months later and those global juggernauts will do it all over again, only this time they’re squaring off in the quarterfinal round of the European showcase event.
Bayern Munich and PSG commence their two-leg tie Wednesday, with the opening confrontation taking place on German soil at Allianz Stadium. This has been a much-anticipated matchup since the final eight teams were in place, largely due to the fact they were last season’s finalists.
Let’s take a look at these sides and see what could be in store.
The big question looming over the Bavarians is how will they respond without the services of Robert Lewandowski. The Bayern Munich talisman, who has 35 goals in 25 appearances in Bundesliga play thus far, is sidelined for at least month with a knee injury.
The Poland international, who was hurt during his country’s World Cup qualifying victory over Andorra, was on course to set a record for goals scored and beat Gerd Muller’s 40-goal campaign in the German top flight. That quest will now have to wait for the time being, as the club’s top offensive weapon is slated to miss at least a month of action.
Bayern Munich, which moved seven points clear of second-place RB Leipzig over the weekend with a win over its rival, will turn to veteran Thomas Muller and Leroy Sané to see if they can pick up the slack in Lewandowski’s absence.
Statistically, Bayern Munich has been absolutely on fire among Bundesliga teams in the advanced metrics. The Bavarians sit on a sizzling 58.5 expected goals and solid 33.7 xGA, resulting in a stellar +24.8 xGDiff and relatively flat +0.92 xGDiff/90 minutes.
The Parisians enter this battle of stalwarts not in the finest of form. They suffered a disappointing 1-0 defeat against Lille over the weekend, which further hurt their chances of winning the Ligue 1 crown.
However, getting revenge over the team that denied them the chance of winning last season’s UCL title would definitely be the cure for any pain its currently enduring on the domestic front.
Kylian Mbappé continues to power PSG’s offensive attack, recording a team-best 20 goals thus far in the French top flight. Mbappé, along with Neymar (six goals, three assists) and Moise Kean (11 goals), hope they can inflict the same kind of punishment on Bayern Munich it did on Lionel Messi and Barcelona en route to eliminating the Spanish outfit from the competition.
When looking at PSG’s numbers in France’s first division, you find a club among the best in all categories. The Parisians sit on a ridiculous 65.1 xG and 31.9 xGA, resulting in an unreal +33.2 xGDiff and +1.07 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Lewandowski’s absence from this beyond intriguing match really throws things off in my opinion. If he would have been healthy for this first leg, I would have backed Bayern Munich to grab the victory.
Unfortunately for the Bavarians, he’s not and that has created an extremely puzzling game to handicap. Could Bayern Munich win this game by a 3-1 or 4-1 scoreline? Sure. Could PSG triumph in similar fashion? Absolutely.
That said, I am staying off a side and backing the total to go over 2.75 goals at -130 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. Neither club knows how to keep its foot off the gas, so I fully expect a back-and-forth affair at Allianz Arena.
Throw in the fact PSG has scored at least one goal in its last 43 Champions League games (yes, 43!), with the line shutout coming in last year’s finale, and you have a recipe for a potentially high-scoring affair.
If you’re looking for a player prop or two, take a swing at the obvious in Mbappé (+170) and Sané (+205) to score anytime. If this turns into a shootout, expect both to find the back of the net.
Picks: Total Over 2.75 Goals (-130) | Kylian Mbappé To Score Anytime — Yes (+170) | Leroy Sane To Score Anytime — Yes (+205)
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Author: Jeremy Pond